Why betting is not a lottery: everything you didn’t know

Nowadays, sports betting appears more and more often in advertising. It is usually presented as a way to make money or just have a good time. The Champions League is different in both FIFA and UEFA, but you can place bets here – https://india-1xbet.in/line/football/118587-uefa-champions-league.

The game at the bookmaker. How does everything work here?

People bet that something will happen in a sports match, such as Federer beating Nadal, hockey players scoring more than five goals, or Manchester winning a clean sheet. If the event occurs, the bet is successful and the bookmaker will pay out the winnings.

The probability of winning is estimated based on a huge amount of data – big data. They look at the condition of the players, the mood and standings of the teams, the severity of the refereeing, and the weather – and determine the chances of both teams winning. For example, if weather forecasters predict rain, this means that it will be more difficult for football players to play – there will be fewer goals scored in the match. If a team plays at its home stadium, it is a little easier for it to win because it is supported by tens of thousands of fans.

All this forms some kind of probability, which is reflected in the bet odds. If the probability of the outcome is 50%, then the coefficient, in theory, should be 2.00. You bet 100 dollars and win – You get another 100, if you lose – you lose your 100.

But the bookmaker will never give odds of 2.00 for equally likely outcomes: he won’t make money that way. For two equally probable outcomes, the coefficient will be, for example, 1.92. If you succeed, the bookmaker will not pay you the extra 8 dollars, and if you fail, they will take away the hundred you bet.

As we said above, you can place bets as a professional player or for fun. If you like gambling for fun, we recommend that you download the mobile casino app.

Negative expected value

Expectation is what we expect to get when playing with a random outcome. If we toss a regular coin twice, we would expect it to come up heads once and heads the second time, because the chances are equal. Like, it can’t be that only tails will come up. If we toss a coin 1000 times, then the mathematical expectation is tails 500 times and heads 500 times

If we perform the same experiment with a coin, but using computer simulation, and do it a quadrillion times, we will see that heads or tails can fall 100 times in a row, or 1000 times in a row. This deviation from the mathematical expectation is dispersion.

The same goes for betting. You can win several bets in a row, but in the end, you will lose, because initially, you play with a negative mathematical expectation. The odds are arranged in such a way that the bookmaker does not pay you extra every time you win. Therefore, many people believe that it is impossible to predict the winner and that strategies are useless.

Using a strategy, this negative mathematical probability disappears; if you do a good analysis before the upcoming match, then you have every chance of winning.

Fixed games

The organizer of such matches is always an organized crime group, they are usually called syndicates. The news most often shows that this is Thailand or Vietnam, or another country in Southeast Asia.

Bribery goes something like this. They approach, for example, an average tennis player and say: “Dear, you’re playing at Wimbledon. You understand that your chances are only so-so. Let’s do this: in the second set, fifth game, you will earn zero points on your serves. Serve it to the net, to the judge, to the stands, whatever you want to do.

The main thing is not to earn points. If you do everything as we said, you will receive money, more than you win in the tournament. If you cheat, we’ll make sure that you get into some kind of accident and you won’t be able to play tennis anymore.” A tennis player who has no chance at the tournament is more likely to agree.

But in the Champions Leagues, this is not the case, where sports stars either do not want to sully their reputation, or they will ask for a lot of money. Therefore, you can safely place bets in the Champion Leagues.

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